Dead cat bounce or does the equity market have what it takes to reverse that negative bear market stigma? As we highlighted over the last few weekly notes, we suspected the equity markets would bounce. However now, we feel that the euphoria has hit some technical levels that should put to test the veracity of this rally. We like to take a longer-term approach in times like this as everyone is all goosed up about the rebound, because fundamentally nothing has really changed. In fact, one can argue where fundamentals are concerned, the backdrop continues to weaken, global instability continues to gain, and the US government furlough seems to be foolishly overlooked.
What a ride the beginning of the year has been so far. As we warned in our year end and 2019 outlook, the equity markets were most likely set up for some bottom pickers to step in and show their support out of the gates.
This is going to be a quick note with some charts due to the Thanksgiving holiday week. We continue to see bounces being sold into in terms of the equity markets. Our readers have been well informed of our sentiment and despite expecting this to continue, we do expect some bounces to occur now and then. The larger global macro theme hinges on the FEDs continued hikes and deteriorating global cohesion theme.
On Friday we saw the equity markets first head fake only to be driven higher after NFP printed 157k and unemployment fell 0.1 to 3.9%. In the morning, the SP500 saw initial buying then fell back to 2828 support and then never really looked back, here is the chart from Friday August 3rd:
The big economic news for last week came out on Friday as US Q2 GDP posted a decent 4.1%, estimates were as high as 4.4% but let’s not lose sight of the fact that we haven’t had a plus 4% print in nearly 4 years. This news wasn’t enough to help the NASDAQ which, and as we have warned about sector rotation, has seemingly stung the tech sector. The NASDAQ lost nearly 1% on the week while the Dow gained 1.5%. The sector arbs seemed to dominate flows here as the NASDAQ has seen selling while the other indexes as a whole have seemed to benefit. Anyway, here is a quarterly chart of US Real GDP: