Nothing more wets the contrarian investors’ appetite then when these 3 little letters start making their rounds around the financial sphere. What three letters you ask? “CDS”, Some of you novices might not be old enough to remember the damage that these things did a decade ago, but I love a good rehypothecated insurance product, don’t you? What risk is there any more, markets just rise and rise and its cherry Kool-Aid stained T-Shirts for everyone right? Yea more like blood stained in disguise, masked under trillions of global central banks interest rate fixing, bond buying, #QE4EVR regimes. Anyhow lets just take a look at Italian 5Y CDS shall we:
So let’s get to it, what did we learn over the past week? We were informed by Intel that its computer chips were affected by a bug that makes them vulnerable to hacking. All computers with Intel chips from the past 10 years are affected. Considering that computer chips are basically the backbone and brain behind everything electronic including the entirety of the internet itself, this should be very alarming news. We can’t say that we are surprised, we have said in many past writings that the internet itself will have to adapt to these internal threats. Not to mention the internet security threats that future quantum computing presents. To say that this news out of Intel is alarming, is quite an understatement and it’s why the future of technology will need to be completely and openly discussed by all major stakeholders. This will take a collaborative effort, one by which profits will need to be set aside for the greater good. Whether or not this can be achieved is another thing, but the viability of the internet, the Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence comes completely into question now. Intel’s stock price barely fell 5% and why should it, if these things need to be replaced, that means more sales and of course no rebates.
Also out this week the AP reported that the FED projects $80.2 billion in remittance back to the Treasury Dept. Here is a chart of the last decade in remittance. As you can see the FED has paid back billions to its enabler, is it safe to say this is like a drug kingpin and his pushers…maybe that’s too harsh…Anyway the charts show 3 years in a row of declining remittance and one thinks we can just continue to raise rates, can you imagine this levered behemoth and its Dv01 crushing leverage if equities turn and interest rates rise?
Well one thing is certain summer is definitely upon us! With summer in full effect and especially coming off of a midweek 4th of July where it seems those that can, take the entire week off, we wouldn't expect anything less than subpar volume trading. Heck, can we blame them? Sometimes and even if by sheer luck even the shortest hiatus from trading and the market in general can clear ones head and perhaps shed some light on the ever increasing data deluge which we are seemingly inundated with each and every day.