This is going to be a quick note with some charts due to the Thanksgiving holiday week. We continue to see bounces being sold into in terms of the equity markets. Our readers have been well informed of our sentiment and despite expecting this to continue, we do expect some bounces to occur now and then. The larger global macro theme hinges on the FEDs continued hikes and deteriorating global cohesion theme.
We have a lot to get into and we will start this note off with this week’s big news, which was delivered by Apple. Here are the numbers as reported:
- Q4 EPS: 2.91BN, beating Exp. $2.78
- Revenue: $62.9BN, beating Exp. $61.44 billion
- iPhone sales: 46.9 million, missing Exp. 48.4 million
- iPad sales: 9.8 million, missing Exp. 10.5 million, and down from 10.3 million a year ago
- Mac sales: 5.3 million, beating Exp. 4.9 million, and down from 5.4 million a year ago
- iPhone ASP: $793, up from $618, smashing Exp. $729
- Guidance for holiday quarter revenue: $89-$93billion, with the midline below Wall Street estimates of $92.74 billion (Zerohedge)
On Friday we saw the equity markets first head fake only to be driven higher after NFP printed 157k and unemployment fell 0.1 to 3.9%. In the morning, the SP500 saw initial buying then fell back to 2828 support and then never really looked back, here is the chart from Friday August 3rd:
Happy 4th of July everyone and what we have seemingly been accustomed to by now, is the fact that holiday’s that come mid week, seem to wipe out the whole week in terms of productivity. Anyway for the United States, July 4th is the iconic symbol of national independence as it commemorates the signing of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Despite being voted and signed on 2 days prior, we celebrate it on the 4th, maybe because that’s when the documents actual wording was approved. Anyway, speaking of wording, it seems as if the Preamble has been thrusted to the forefront with the election of one Donald John Trump. We highlight this part of the Preamble as being most relevant in describing the new administration from those prior,
“That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.”
For those that haven’t heard of “Q” or Qanon, we highly suggest you research it. This movement that has been ongoing behind the scenes is formidable and has gained a huge following not just here, but globally. Many main stream publications have come out denouncing, discrediting and mounting a clear disdain for any such conspiracies, but we know better. We know that there is always truth to something, especially something this large. We only mention this because it does effect business, it does effect markets and in life, knowledge is the true freedom. So let’s just say, we want you to know so you aren’t surprised. If you want to know more about it, @Prayingmedic on twitter is a good place to start. We will leave it at that.
We have a lot to get into this week, but let’s begin with a POTUS tweet which in our opinion sums up any trade war provocations:
So, we will take Trump for face value and say he is committed to the #MAGA. We have spoken at length about this and he is following thru whether the globe likes it or not, good or bad, repercussions notwithstanding. In a nut shell Trump is playing a game of chicken with China and given the fact they have about 1 billion more people to feed and who knows how much actual debt, local and shadow to combat with. We would also like to point out the fact that we made light in our past letter that the new omnibus bill made provisions for increased military spending for the border and what did we see this week?
Arizona and Texas National Guard are sending 400 mem
bers to the southern border. We can only feel the next step will be construction which we also believe is within the provisions of the new omnibus bill. Time will tell, but things are leaning that way.
We read further this week China has boycott buying US debt, hmm let’s just see how long that lasts. It makes it a bit tougher to peg a currency if you’re not intervening and we feel this bluff won’t last long both from a fundamental viewpoint and certainly a domestic stability front.