Unintended Consequences of Monetary Easing

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Nov 23, 2018 9:22:16 AM

This is going to be a quick note with some charts due to the Thanksgiving holiday week. We continue to see bounces being sold into in terms of the equity markets. Our readers have been well informed of our sentiment and despite expecting this to continue, we do expect some bounces to occur now and then. The larger global macro theme hinges on the FEDs continued hikes and deteriorating global cohesion theme.

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Corporate Treasuries Have Chosen a Life That Does Not Have a Future

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Nov 15, 2018 9:31:57 AM

This week’s note will begin by reiterating our bullish theme on the Natural Gas market. We have been clamoring for weeks about both the technical and fundamental backdrop that continues to underpin this Bull Run.

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The Bond Market Will Be The Bear That Crushes The Equity Market

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Oct 4, 2018 2:40:23 PM

This last week was full of reports of wide spread over valuations across the gamut of both global equity markets as well as global bond markets, especially Europe. Now we aren’t talking about some bobble headed main stream media types, we are talking about titans, the likes of Ray Dalio, Stan Drunkenmiller, Jeff Gundlach all relaying the same theme, “well above historical norms.” We even read a great piece on the PEG ratio from Fasanara Capital, which stated that the PEG, which is a statistical measure of how expensive a stock is relative to its ability to generate earnings, is well above 1999 highs and probably rightfully so given the plethora of cheap financing from zero rates, unprecedented HY rates and of course continued tax breaks. All that said, the pressure from the rhetoric from the guys we just mentioned should begin to mount, as they most certainly have an agenda attached to such warnings.

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Fed Raises Rates in Highly Anticipated Move

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Sep 27, 2018 10:12:20 AM

The FOMC decided to raise rates another 25bp to a high mark range of 2.25%. We applaud the continued move; however, we feel that we could be doing more and doing it faster. Holding interest rates or real rates still negative, some 10 years after the 2008 crisis is deeply concerning. All too often people focus on the Fed Funds rate, but the real rate, the FF less inflation, is still negative. Rates are still very accommodative...although the FED left that word out of the statement today. Watching Powell is like watching your Accounting professor discuss reconciling the balance sheet on a late spring afternoon. He and the FED continue to use words like transitory, gradual and appropriate, a decade into a recovery and we are still using these words. The dot plots are all calling for continued hikes peaking around 3.25/3.65%. We view this as highly opportunistic and we do not think the global economy nor the domestic economy will be able to absorb such a short rate given the sheer size of global debt growth. For those that haven’t seen, we often use our own “dot plot” picture:

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Markets Picking Up Steam?

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Sep 21, 2018 9:39:53 AM

We are going to keep this week’s letter short and to the point. We are sick and tired of the political charade that is ongoing in DC with the tariffs and the SC vote. For us general Americans deserve better and we will just leave it at that. As for the markets, US Treasury yields have risen above the 3% threshold and in no doubt in further anticipation of next week’s FOMC 25bp hike. We aren't a big fan of the FEDs slow drip process, we would rather they just hike the FED FUNDs above the 10yr rate and be done with it. With the ECB and BOJ firmly entrenched in continuing QE operations, the world will certainly absorb a relatively hawkish FED. Further evidence is mounting that the FED itself has become somewhat impotent and that these 25bp hikes amount to nothing more than buying time till the next crisis. Where they will most certainly peg long rates below 2.5%. Anyway, the global corporations have done their own fair share of monetary printing.

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