This last week was full of reports of wide spread over valuations across the gamut of both global equity markets as well as global bond markets, especially Europe. Now we aren’t talking about some bobble headed main stream media types, we are talking about titans, the likes of Ray Dalio, Stan Drunkenmiller, Jeff Gundlach all relaying the same theme, “well above historical norms.” We even read a great piece on the PEG ratio from Fasanara Capital, which stated that the PEG, which is a statistical measure of how expensive a stock is relative to its ability to generate earnings, is well above 1999 highs and probably rightfully so given the plethora of cheap financing from zero rates, unprecedented HY rates and of course continued tax breaks. All that said, the pressure from the rhetoric from the guys we just mentioned should begin to mount, as they most certainly have an agenda attached to such warnings.
The FOMC decided to raise rates another 25bp to a high mark range of 2.25%. We applaud the continued move; however, we feel that we could be doing more and doing it faster. Holding interest rates or real rates still negative, some 10 years after the 2008 crisis is deeply concerning. All too often people focus on the Fed Funds rate, but the real rate, the FF less inflation, is still negative. Rates are still very accommodative...although the FED left that word out of the statement today. Watching Powell is like watching your Accounting professor discuss reconciling the balance sheet on a late spring afternoon. He and the FED continue to use words like transitory, gradual and appropriate, a decade into a recovery and we are still using these words. The dot plots are all calling for continued hikes peaking around 3.25/3.65%. We view this as highly opportunistic and we do not think the global economy nor the domestic economy will be able to absorb such a short rate given the sheer size of global debt growth. For those that haven’t seen, we often use our own “dot plot” picture:
We are going to keep this week’s letter short and to the point. We are sick and tired of the political charade that is ongoing in DC with the tariffs and the SC vote. For us general Americans deserve better and we will just leave it at that. As for the markets, US Treasury yields have risen above the 3% threshold and in no doubt in further anticipation of next week’s FOMC 25bp hike. We aren't a big fan of the FEDs slow drip process, we would rather they just hike the FED FUNDs above the 10yr rate and be done with it. With the ECB and BOJ firmly entrenched in continuing QE operations, the world will certainly absorb a relatively hawkish FED. Further evidence is mounting that the FED itself has become somewhat impotent and that these 25bp hikes amount to nothing more than buying time till the next crisis. Where they will most certainly peg long rates below 2.5%. Anyway, the global corporations have done their own fair share of monetary printing.
What an interesting week, to say the least, from Elon opening his mouth too wide and Uber/Lyft fighting NYC on new ride share app regulations. All in all, last week presented us with a chance to look at a NYC taxi medallion chart, who wudda ever thought? Anyway, regulations were signed into law last week by NYC mayor De Blasio, limiting the amount of ride sharing app licenses, as well as requiring a minimum pay for its drivers of $17.22 an hour.
The big economic news for last week came out on Friday as US Q2 GDP posted a decent 4.1%, estimates were as high as 4.4% but let’s not lose sight of the fact that we haven’t had a plus 4% print in nearly 4 years. This news wasn’t enough to help the NASDAQ which, and as we have warned about sector rotation, has seemingly stung the tech sector. The NASDAQ lost nearly 1% on the week while the Dow gained 1.5%. The sector arbs seemed to dominate flows here as the NASDAQ has seen selling while the other indexes as a whole have seemed to benefit. Anyway, here is a quarterly chart of US Real GDP: