Capital Trading Group

Alternative Investments within Managed Futures

Turkish Lira Plunge Signals Warning Signs?

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Aug 15, 2018 1:40:33 PM

 

What an interesting week, to say the least, from Elon opening his mouth too wide and Uber/Lyft fighting NYC on new ride share app regulations. All in all, last week presented us with a chance to look at a NYC taxi medallion chart, who wudda ever thought? Anyway, regulations were signed into law last week by NYC mayor De Blasio, limiting the amount of ride sharing app licenses, as well as requiring a minimum pay for its drivers of $17.22 an hour. No doubt they will fight, but hey considering this medallion chart, we do think the taxi brigade has a legitimate beef. The traders in us think this chart is well oversold!

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Fear of Missing Out

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Aug 8, 2018 9:59:39 AM

 

On Friday we saw the equity markets first head fake only to be driven higher after NFP printed 157k and unemployment fell 0.1 to 3.9%. In the morning, the SP500 saw initial buying then fell back to 2828 support and then never really looked back, here is the chart from Friday August 3rd:

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GDP Gains But FANGS Repricing

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Jul 31, 2018 10:07:24 AM

 

The big economic news for last week came out on Friday as US Q2 GDP posted a decent 4.1%, estimates were as high as 4.4% but let’s not lose sight of the fact that we haven’t had a plus 4% print in nearly 4 years. This news wasn’t enough to help the NASDAQ which, and as we have warned about sector rotation, has seemingly stung the tech sector. The NASDAQ lost nearly 1% on the week while the Dow gained 1.5%. The sector arbs seemed to dominate flows here as the NASDAQ has seen selling while the other indexes as a whole have seemed to benefit. Anyway, here is a quarterly chart of US Real GDP:

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China Tries To Fight Tariffs

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Jul 24, 2018 10:39:51 AM

 

As we talked a few letters back about the prospect for protectionism and tariffs turning into currency wars, which then have a tendency to turn into hot wars, it is largely apparent this week things have certainly escalated. The PBOC has decided to fight Trump and his tariffs with a little bit of devaluation. Now we know the PBOC doesn’t have much leeway in this arena as they will risk two very important things,

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What will Happen when the Market has a Down Year?

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Jul 17, 2018 11:55:20 AM

Global equity markets continued to advance. Last week’s newsletter noted the importance of closing the week above the all-important 2750 level in the EMINI SP500 Sept contract. We knew this level was huge considering the close below on June 29th sent the contract below our 7-week moving average and was on the cusp of losing further ground. 

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