Commodity Futures Weekly Newsletter- For the week of May 19th, 2025
Gold futures appear to be in a correction as they continue their pullback.
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A publication by the Research Team at Capital Trading Group: 800-238-2610
Metals
Gold Futures
Gold Futures continue to pullback.
Gold Futures appear to be in a correction to retrace Wave 3 in an eventual Wave 4. Until prices retrace to below 3,111.90, it is too early to be confident Wave 4 is in progress. This week price reached a low of 3,123.30, before settling at 3,205.30.
Trend Channel resistance remains intact
Gold Futures closed another week again below Trend channel Resistance. It would take a weekly close above the all-time high of 3,509.90 to keep Wave 3 up in progress. Without that occurrence again this week, prices remain in a position to continue the awaited pullback. The evidence that Wave 3 is mature has been stated. Prices nearly reached the 3.618x Fibonacci Extension target of 3,513.50, stalled at Trend Channel Resistance and have closed now 3 consecutive weeks below Trend Channel Resistance. RSI also reached an Overbought condition and there is a small divergence between the two most recent highs. Despite those observations, until prices retrace to below 3,111.90, taking back 23.6% of the Wave 3 gains, it is too early to be confident Wave 4 is in progress.
Fibonacci Supports for a retracement are at 3,111.90 & 2,865.70
Repeating, a very shallow correction would retrace 23.6% of the gains in Wave 3 from the Wave 2 low of 1,823.50. This is listed on the chart at 3,111.90. A deeper Wave 4 correction would retrace 38.2% of the gains in Wave 3. This projects to 2,865.70 and is also listed on the chart. This 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is a more standard measure for 4th Wave retracements and aligns well with current Trend Channel Support.
Conclusion
Continue to prepare for a deeper correction in an eventual Wave 4. A sideways to lower correction in Wave 4 would precede eventual new highs. A simple A,B,C decline as a zig zag or a more sideways Bullish triangle are Wave 4 candidates. If Gold Futures were to close a Daily session over 3,509.90, prior to reaching 3,111.90, then 3,802.10 would become the Fibonacci Extension target, at 4.236x the length of Wave 1 in a persistent Wave 3. A drop below 50 in RSI, currently at 63.52, would add weight to the proposed Wave 4 scenario.
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Thank you!
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