This is going to be a quick note with some charts due to the Thanksgiving holiday week. We continue to see bounces being sold into in terms of the equity markets. Our readers have been well informed of our sentiment and despite expecting this to continue, we do expect some bounces to occur now and then. The larger global macro theme hinges on the FEDs continued hikes and deteriorating global cohesion theme.
We have a lot to get into and we will start this note off with this week’s big news, which was delivered by Apple. Here are the numbers as reported:
- Q4 EPS: 2.91BN, beating Exp. $2.78
- Revenue: $62.9BN, beating Exp. $61.44 billion
- iPhone sales: 46.9 million, missing Exp. 48.4 million
- iPad sales: 9.8 million, missing Exp. 10.5 million, and down from 10.3 million a year ago
- Mac sales: 5.3 million, beating Exp. 4.9 million, and down from 5.4 million a year ago
- iPhone ASP: $793, up from $618, smashing Exp. $729
- Guidance for holiday quarter revenue: $89-$93billion, with the midline below Wall Street estimates of $92.74 billion (Zerohedge)
On Friday we saw the equity markets first head fake only to be driven higher after NFP printed 157k and unemployment fell 0.1 to 3.9%. In the morning, the SP500 saw initial buying then fell back to 2828 support and then never really looked back, here is the chart from Friday August 3rd:
We have a lot to get into this week, but let’s begin with a POTUS tweet which in our opinion sums up any trade war provocations:
So, we will take Trump for face value and say he is committed to the #MAGA. We have spoken at length about this and he is following thru whether the globe likes it or not, good or bad, repercussions notwithstanding. In a nut shell Trump is playing a game of chicken with China and given the fact they have about 1 billion more people to feed and who knows how much actual debt, local and shadow to combat with. We would also like to point out the fact that we made light in our past letter that the new omnibus bill made provisions for increased military spending for the border and what did we see this week?
Arizona and Texas National Guard are sending 400 mem
bers to the southern border. We can only feel the next step will be construction which we also believe is within the provisions of the new omnibus bill. Time will tell, but things are leaning that way.
We read further this week China has boycott buying US debt, hmm let’s just see how long that lasts. It makes it a bit tougher to peg a currency if you’re not intervening and we feel this bluff won’t last long both from a fundamental viewpoint and certainly a domestic stability front.
Before we get to the markets, we have to talk about something that concerns us. This week the government failed to gather enough senate votes to pass a budget resolution. We have been down this path before and it is just further testament to the ineptitude of those in congress to put the people first and their political agendas aside. We can’t say that we are the least bit surprised. What you may not know is the larger on going operation sweep to put to justice the bad actors responsible for the massive collusion of government agencies vs the then president nominee and now president elect Trump. Not only that, but there are massive implications for Hillary Clinton, the DNC and a firm called FusionGPS that compiled the so called “Trump Dossier.”