Let’s dig into some of the Q4 bank earnings that came out last week. First up Bank of America which posted its largest full year profit in history $28.15 billion. (WSJ) So how did they accomplish such a feat, well let’s just see what their interest rate differential was, i.e. what are they paying depositors compared to the risk-free rate they earn off those deposits.
Nothing more wets the contrarian investors’ appetite then when these 3 little letters start making their rounds around the financial sphere. What three letters you ask? “CDS”, Some of you novices might not be old enough to remember the damage that these things did a decade ago, but I love a good rehypothecated insurance product, don’t you? What risk is there any more, markets just rise and rise and its cherry Kool-Aid stained T-Shirts for everyone right? Yea more like blood stained in disguise, masked under trillions of global central banks interest rate fixing, bond buying, #QE4EVR regimes. Anyhow lets just take a look at Italian 5Y CDS shall we:
As we labor along these summer trading days, awash in great anticipation of the next FED policy move, we can't help but bring to light some of the driving facets behind the equity, bond and currency moves. We believe that our readers must understand the simple fact that central banks are the biggest driver, not only as to the daily direction of bets placed, but as to the overall trends in general. We heard for years how the plunge protection team didn't exist. We heard for years that dope Steve Liesman, that FED butt kissing media spinning journalist tell us that the central banks don't directly affect the markets. Now after 9 long years of ZIRP and $15 Trillion dollar major central banks balance sheets (not including PBOC), the markets are as frothy as ever. We hear bubble talk after bubble talk, bonds are in a bubble, equities are in a bubble, Bitcoin is in a bubble.