Before we get into a review of the important facets of 2018, let’s look back and take a look at last years year end letter and take note of what we foretold.
Its kind of amazing how at certain points in time, things happen and they tend to be a wake up call – that is if we just open our ears and listen. We have talked at length about our disdain for the likes of the big investment houses and their pitching of zero fee fund management products.
This last week was full of reports of wide spread over valuations across the gamut of both global equity markets as well as global bond markets, especially Europe. Now we aren’t talking about some bobble headed main stream media types, we are talking about titans, the likes of Ray Dalio, Stan Drunkenmiller, Jeff Gundlach all relaying the same theme, “well above historical norms.” We even read a great piece on the PEG ratio from Fasanara Capital, which stated that the PEG, which is a statistical measure of how expensive a stock is relative to its ability to generate earnings, is well above 1999 highs and probably rightfully so given the plethora of cheap financing from zero rates, unprecedented HY rates and of course continued tax breaks. All that said, the pressure from the rhetoric from the guys we just mentioned should begin to mount, as they most certainly have an agenda attached to such warnings.
What an interesting week, to say the least, from Elon opening his mouth too wide and Uber/Lyft fighting NYC on new ride share app regulations. All in all, last week presented us with a chance to look at a NYC taxi medallion chart, who wudda ever thought? Anyway, regulations were signed into law last week by NYC mayor De Blasio, limiting the amount of ride sharing app licenses, as well as requiring a minimum pay for its drivers of $17.22 an hour.