This week’s note will begin by reiterating our bullish theme on the Natural Gas market. We have been clamoring for weeks about both the technical and fundamental backdrop that continues to underpin this Bull Run.
We have a lot to get into and we will start this note off with this week’s big news, which was delivered by Apple. Here are the numbers as reported:
- Q4 EPS: 2.91BN, beating Exp. $2.78
- Revenue: $62.9BN, beating Exp. $61.44 billion
- iPhone sales: 46.9 million, missing Exp. 48.4 million
- iPad sales: 9.8 million, missing Exp. 10.5 million, and down from 10.3 million a year ago
- Mac sales: 5.3 million, beating Exp. 4.9 million, and down from 5.4 million a year ago
- iPhone ASP: $793, up from $618, smashing Exp. $729
- Guidance for holiday quarter revenue: $89-$93billion, with the midline below Wall Street estimates of $92.74 billion (Zerohedge)
This last week was full of reports of wide spread over valuations across the gamut of both global equity markets as well as global bond markets, especially Europe. Now we aren’t talking about some bobble headed main stream media types, we are talking about titans, the likes of Ray Dalio, Stan Drunkenmiller, Jeff Gundlach all relaying the same theme, “well above historical norms.” We even read a great piece on the PEG ratio from Fasanara Capital, which stated that the PEG, which is a statistical measure of how expensive a stock is relative to its ability to generate earnings, is well above 1999 highs and probably rightfully so given the plethora of cheap financing from zero rates, unprecedented HY rates and of course continued tax breaks. All that said, the pressure from the rhetoric from the guys we just mentioned should begin to mount, as they most certainly have an agenda attached to such warnings.