Dead cat bounce or does the equity market have what it takes to reverse that negative bear market stigma? As we highlighted over the last few weekly notes, we suspected the equity markets would bounce. However now, we feel that the euphoria has hit some technical levels that should put to test the veracity of this rally. We like to take a longer-term approach in times like this as everyone is all goosed up about the rebound, because fundamentally nothing has really changed. In fact, one can argue where fundamentals are concerned, the backdrop continues to weaken, global instability continues to gain, and the US government furlough seems to be foolishly overlooked.
What a ride the beginning of the year has been so far. As we warned in our year end and 2019 outlook, the equity markets were most likely set up for some bottom pickers to step in and show their support out of the gates.
As we noted in last weeks letter, the equity markets looked locked and loaded to test their crucial supports and they did just that. The SP500 tested the 2550 level and the Nasdaq the all-important 6495 level, both markets saw minor follow through. All eyes are dependent upon what the FED does on Wednesday as the markets still see around a 68% chance of another 25bp hike. We read in the WSJ on Monday an Op-ed from Stan Drunkenmiller and Kevin Warsh and it can be summed up via this quote, “the central bank should pause its double-barreled blitz of higher interest rates and tighter liquidity.” As much as we respect the both of them, we disagree whole heartedly.
This is going to be a quick note with some charts due to the Thanksgiving holiday week. We continue to see bounces being sold into in terms of the equity markets. Our readers have been well informed of our sentiment and despite expecting this to continue, we do expect some bounces to occur now and then. The larger global macro theme hinges on the FEDs continued hikes and deteriorating global cohesion theme.
This week’s note will begin by reiterating our bullish theme on the Natural Gas market. We have been clamoring for weeks about both the technical and fundamental backdrop that continues to underpin this Bull Run.