The Natural Course of Things is Inevitable, Not Preventable

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Jan 17, 2019 9:39:05 AM

Dead cat bounce or does the equity market have what it takes to reverse that negative bear market stigma? As we highlighted over the last few weekly notes, we suspected the equity markets would bounce. However now, we feel that the euphoria has hit some technical levels that should put to test the veracity of this rally. We like to take a longer-term approach in times like this as everyone is all goosed up about the rebound, because fundamentally nothing has really changed. In fact, one can argue where fundamentals are concerned, the backdrop continues to weaken, global instability continues to gain, and the US government furlough seems to be foolishly overlooked.

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Non-Farm Payroll Beat Sparks Market, What's Next?

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Jan 10, 2019 10:50:04 AM

What a ride the beginning of the year has been so far. As we warned in our year end and 2019 outlook, the equity markets were most likely set up for some bottom pickers to step in and show their support out of the gates.

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2018 Review & Outlook 2019

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Dec 31, 2018 8:32:32 AM

Before we get into a review of the important facets of 2018, let’s look back and take a look at last years year end letter and take note of what we foretold.

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Signs of Things to Come

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Dec 19, 2018 8:08:53 AM

As we noted in last weeks letter, the equity markets looked locked and loaded to test their crucial supports and they did just that. The SP500 tested the 2550 level and the Nasdaq the all-important 6495 level, both markets saw minor follow through. All eyes are dependent upon what the FED does on Wednesday as the markets still see around a 68% chance of another 25bp hike. We read in the WSJ on Monday an Op-ed from Stan Drunkenmiller and Kevin Warsh and it can be summed up via this quote, “the central bank should pause its double-barreled blitz of higher interest rates and tighter liquidity.” As much as we respect the both of them, we disagree whole heartedly. 

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Money Flow is Fickle

Posted by Capital Trading Group on Dec 11, 2018 8:26:28 AM

Last week we touched upon the importance of the Federal Reserve and their waffling in regards to staying consistent with their rate hiking plans. The FED is supposed to be independent of political influence but it seems that POTUS and his constant remarks have taken their toll as Powell seems to be tight roping his options right now. 

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