June 18, 2025
Commodity Futures Weekly Newsletter- For the week of June 9th, 2025
Possible peak in feeders, coffee continues to slide, wheat showing reversal, Yen holds above support, Gas rises with tensions, gold continues its uptrend, bearish momentum in bonds pauses, and S&P futures challenged resistance.
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A publication by the Research Team at Capital Trading Group: 800-238-2610
Indices
S&P E-mini-Futures
S&P Futures close below Resistance of 6,090.25.
Hello and Welcome! As usual, in this week’s newsletter we will start with the Indices, with the E-mini S&P in focus. The daily chart shows a continued recovery from the chart low of 4832, following a clear A,B,C decline from the chart high of 6,166.50. The market closed down 31.75 at 5,978.25 this week.
Resistance at 6,090.25 challenged with 6,074.75 recovery high
The recovery in the E-mini S&P from April hit a high of 6,074.25 this week, peaking below Resistance at 6,090.25. Support is raised to 5,756.50 for the advance and as it holds, the upward recovery would be thought to be in progress. With RSI still in bullish territory at 57.75, continue to allow for further upside while reading out above 50. The final resistance area below the all-time high of 6,166.50 is located at 6,090.25. This is where the recent leg of the 3-wave rise from 4,832 becomes 1.382x the length of the initial advance in Wave X. If the S&P has peaked, a drop below 5,765.50 would be needed.
Conclusion
Against 6,090.25 and 6,166.50, the potential for further downside remains. If instead we witness a 5-wave rise from 4,832, the focus would be on a complete correction ending at 4,832 and a continuation to new highs above 6,116.50, toward 6,254.50, where the current leg of the rise from 4,832 reaches 1.618x times the length of the initial rise, and is listed on the chart. Breaking 6,090.25 would favor that outcome. If support at 5,756.50 is violated to the downside beforehand, it would boost the view that the advance from 4,832 is a recovery.
Financials
10 Year Treasury Bond Futures
10 Year Bonds above Support and below Resistance
10 Year Treasury Bond Futures remained below previous Trendline Support again this week. With RSI back near 50, at 52.10, bearish momentum has paused. A test of Structural Support at 109’08 remains favored while below 112.
Support at 109’08 Resistance at 112
With the recovery higher in Stock Indices incomplete, the correction lower in Bonds may also be incomplete. Previous Trendline Support near 112 is now current Resistance. Conversely, if the S&P rally is complete, Bonds would escalate higher through 112 and further, through 112’20’5.
Conclusion
The main support level of 107’04 is pivotal as any breaks would be interpreted as bearish for Bond prices. Any breaks above 114’10 would be Bullish for Bond Prices. Until then, a decline below 109’08 at the April 2025 low may be needed. The break of Trendline Support favors that outcome while lowered Resistance at 112’20’5 remains in place.
Metals
Gold Futures
Gold Futures uptrend to challenge all-time high.
Gold Futures remained above 50 in RSI at 70.70 and Fibonacci price Support at 3,111.90 again this week. It still remains too early to be confident Wave 3 has ended and Wave 4 is in progress. This week price settled at 3,452.60 up 121.60 from last weeks close of 3,331.
Fibonacci Supports at 3,111.90 & 2,865.70 buoy Gold market
Even a very shallow correction would retrace 23.6% of the gains in Wave 3, in a Wave 4 to 3,111.90. A deeper Wave 4 correction would retrace 38.2% of the gains in Wave 3. This projects to 2,865.70 and is also listed on the chart. With the low of the decline from the all-time high 3,509.90 top only reaching 3,123.50 it is too early to call Wave 3 complete. The correction is likely only correcting Wave 3 of 3, hence its’ shallow nature, implying Wave 5 of 3 is yet to come.
Conclusion
If Gold Futures were to close a Daily session over 3,509.90, prior to reaching 3,111.90, then 3,802.10 would become the Fibonacci Extension target, at 4.236x the length of Wave 1 in a persistent Wave 3. A drop below 50 in RSI, currently at 70.70, or a decline beneath 3,111.90 would be needed to feel Wave 4 was in effect. Any new high through 3,509.90 and new Fibonacci retracement levels for an eventual Wave 4 can be drawn.
Energies
RBOB Gasoline Futures
Gasoline Futures rise toward Resistance amid global tensions.
The weekly chart of Gasoline Futures again continues to show a range-bound market with still no break of defined ranges. It will still take a weekly close above 2.32 as a breakout sign of the recent range to target upper resistance at 2.62 and 2.79 respectively. Until then, the low of 1.8545 is support for the trading range.
Prices could next challenge Resistance at 2.32
With prices at 2.2217, prices rose 14 cents this week. An RSI reading above 50, now at 56.04, puts Gasoline Futures back to bullish territory. This could lead to a test of Resistance at 2.32 following a successful defense of Support at 2.00. With rising tensions in Oil producing regions, the stage is set for a rally attempt in Gasoline Futures, on top of the upcoming Summer driving demand season.
Conclusion
Continue to accept any weekly close above 2.3215 as an upside breakout of the recent range. Conversely, accept any weekly close below 1.8545 as a downside breakout of the recent range. Support, the 1.8545 low of the trading range, no longer appears immediately vulnerable. On the contrary, it is Resistance at 2.32 that appears more vulnerable following recent geopolitical affairs.
Currencies
Japanese Yen Futures
Yen Futures remain above Support.
Japanese Yen Futures are consolidating again on the prevailing trendline. Structural support is nearby beneath the trendline, at 0.006705. With RSI at 55.72, Yen Futures appear to be rising faster than Bond prices .
Structural Support remains at 0.006705
A move below 0.006705 is needed to feel that the trend had turned lower. Prices falling below 0.006753 would increase bearish potential for a new low below 0.006705. Until then, any breaks of Resistance at 0.0071935 would imply a deepening correction in Stock Indices and would be a precursor to a Bond rally.
Conclusion
No changes this week. While Resistance at 0.0071935 remains in place, allow for tests of Structural Support at 0.006705.
Grains
Wheat Futures
Wheat Futures continue to show a reversal pattern at Support.
Wheat Futures have been moving lower, setting multi-year lows in May 2025 at 506’2. After a successful defense of support of 500, the bearish follow through did not materialize. Wheat Futures may have set at least a short-term low. With RSI at 53.05, above 50, bullish sentiment remains a factor.
A Reverse Head & Shoulders chart pattern valid, not yet active
To keep the series of lower lows and lower highs in place, Resistance at 569’2 must remain intact. This looks to be challenged however after a potential Reverse or Inverse Head & Shoulders chart pattern appears visible. The idealized model is overlayed upon the chart. By definition, the Reverse Head & Shoulders pattern is a potential reversal pattern that forms at the end of a downtrend. It has three successive troughs, with the middle trough being the deepest as the Head, in between both Shoulders. The break of the Neckline would signify the pattern is likely active. This area matches Structural Resistance at 569’2, so we have 2 levels of Resistance that converge.
Conclusion
With the RSI above 50, at 53.05, sentiment remains Bullish. This coupled with the inability to extend the downward price action beneath 506’2 to break 500 and a Bullish reversal pattern emerging in Wheat Futures has the analysis shifting from Bearish to below 500, to at least Bullish to above 569’2. While 506’2 remains unbroken, the chart favors higher prices.
Softs
Coffee Futures
Coffee Futures fall again this week.
Coffee Futures continued lower this week to below 336.55 as forecast. As before, until we see a Daily close above Resistance at 418.90, a second A,B,C decline to come continues to remain the forecast. With Wave A downward complete, Wave B upward is now likely complete as well. Declines in Wave C would travel below 323.90, below the low of the initial ABC decline from the chart high.
Lowered Resistance at 401.30 remains a strong barrier
The Wave X high of 418.90 remains unchallenged as Resistance for further declines. As it holds, a potential “double” zig zag continues to be the preferred view for more even more downside pressure. With RSI at 40.14, bearish momentum has stayed below the midpoint again this week. Continue to favor the next A,B,C decline to below 323.90 in motion. Only a Daily close above 418.90 would change the outlook. We can maintain Resistance from 418.90 at the Wave X high, down to 401.30. This would be a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, .786, of the decline of Wave A in Wave B’s upward correction. If Wave B is complete, Resistance can be lowered to the Wave B high at 376.40.
Conclusion
Continue to favor more downside from below 418.90 to reach beneath 323.90. While prices remain below lowered resistance at 401.30, prices falling below this week’s low of 334.30 would indicate the next leg down is underway.
Livestock
Feeder Cattle Futures
Feeder Cattle may have peaked at new all-time highs of 314.20.
Feeder Cattle Futures maintain a Bullish RSI reading above 50, at 56.64 and remained above support at 290 favoring a new all-time high above 310.55. Prices closed the week’s trading at 305.975, after setting a new all-time of 314.20 in this week's trading. With 5 waves-up visible, Bearish Opportunities may arise here from the top.
Breaks of Short-term support at 290 would confirm a peak
Any new marginal new high beyond 310 needed to complete Wave 5 would aim for 318.75, as the potential upper projection for a Wave 5 top to form, as mentioned last week. The potential top of Wave 5 came in between 310 and 318.75, at 314.20. We can continue to list 290 as support, as any drop below that level would take prices back into the span of the previous 4th wave triangle, indicating Wave 5 had likely peaked.
Conclusion
With a Wave 5 potentially complete, we are awaiting confirmation of a top to be registered. Structural Support is nearby at the wave 4 triangle endpoint of 281.90. If price continues lower and we witness moves below 281.90, move to confidently Bearish expecting declines to break Trend Channel Support in Wave A of a larger A,B,C Corrective Wave after 5-waves up complete in an Impulsive Wave as per the Elliott Wave Theory model. A break below 50 in RSI, currently at 56.64 or drop in prices below 290, currently at 305.975, would be a good early confirmation that Wave 5 indeed was finished and Wave A lower to beneath 281.90 had started the larger ABC Corrective Wave following a 12345 Impulsive Wave, ending in a Wave 5 thrust to 314.20 from a Wave 4 Bullish Running Triangle.
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Thank you!
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be
relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and
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