June 2, 2025
Commodity Futures Weekly Newsletter- For the week of June 2nd, 2025
Feeders stay above support, Coffee fall has more to go, Wheat makes a move towards support, Yen awaits more clarity, Gas tests 2025 support, Gold still in uptrend, Bonds remain below support, S&P Futures rally adds to gains
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A publication by the Research Team at Capital Trading Group: 800-238-2610
Indices
S&P E-mini-Futures
S&P Futures recovery rally adds to gains.
Hello and Welcome! As usual, in this week’s newsletter we will start with the Indices, with the E-mini S&P in focus. The daily chart shows a continued recovery from the chart low of 4832, following a clear A,B,C decline from the chart high of 6,166.50. The market closed up 99 at 5,913.75 this week.
Resistance remains at 6,090.25 below all-time high
The recovery is currently labeled as Wave X in the middle of an ABCXABC decline. A double zigzag. Support is 5,127.25 for the advance and as it holds, the upward recovery would be thought to be in progress. With RSI still in bullish territory at 59.83, continue to allow for further upside while reading out above 50. The final resistance area below the all-time high of 6,166.50 is located at 6,090.25. This is where the recent leg of the 3-wave rise from 4,832 becomes 1.382x the length of the initial advance in Wave X.
Conclusion
No changes this week. We can see, the rise is in 3-waves. If we witness a 5-wave rise from 4,832, the focus would be on a complete correction ending at 4,832 and a continuation to new highs above 6,116.50, toward 6,254.50, where the current leg of the rise from 4,832 reaches 1.618x times the length of the initial rise, and is listed on the chart. If critical support at 5,127.50 is violated to the downside beforehand, favor another zig zag lower toward 4,832 and 4,711 at the 23.6% Fibonacci Support of the entire rise to the 6,166.50 all-time high of the Index.
Financials
10 Year Treasury Bond Futures
10 Year Bonds remain below Trendline Support.
10 Year Treasury Bond Futures remains below previous Trendline Support. With RSI above 50, at 52.80, bearish momentum is at bay. A test of Structural Support at 109’08 is favored.
Trendline Support now Resistance at 112
As before, the price action from the 107’06 early 2025 low would be the base for any new advance. As is, the action can continue to be construed as constructive, with 5 small non-overlapping waves to the recent 114’10 high. This would be Wave 1 of a new cycle. Clearly, any new high above 114’10 would favor this outcome. Only a break of 107’06 would negate this scenario. With the recovery in Stock Indices incomplete, the correction in Bonds may also be incomplete. Previous Trendline Support near 112 is now current Resistance.
Conclusion
The main support level of 107’04 is pivotal as any breaks would be interpreted as bearish for Bond prices. Any breaks above 114’10 would be Bullish for Bond Prices. Until then, a decline below 109’08 at the April 2025 low may be needed. The break of Trendline Support favors that outcome while lowered Resistance at 112’20’5 remains in place
Metals
Gold Futures
Gold Futures uptrend still in force.
Gold Futures remain above Support at 3,111.90. It remains too early to be confident Wave 3 has ended and Wave 4 is in progress. This week price settled at 3,313.10.
Fibonacci Supports for a retracement are at 3,111.90 & 2,865.70
A very shallow correction would retrace 23.6% of the gains in Wave 3 from the Wave 2 low of 1,823.50. This is listed on the chart at 3,111.90. A deeper Wave 4 correction would retrace 38.2% of the gains in Wave 3. This projects to 2,865.70 and is also listed on the chart. This 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is a more standard measure for 4th Wave retracements and aligns well with current Trend Channel Support. With the low of the decline from the all-time high 3,509.90 top only reaching 3,123.50 it is too early to call Wave 3 complete.
Conclusion
No changes. Continue to prepare for a deeper correction in an eventual Wave 4. A sideways to lower correction in Wave 4 would precede eventual new highs. A simple A,B,C decline as a zig zag or a more sideways Bullish triangle are Wave 4 candidates. If Gold Futures were to close a Daily session over 3,509.90, prior to reaching 3,111.90, then 3,802.10 would become the Fibonacci Extension target, at 4.236x the length of Wave 1 in a persistent Wave 3. A drop below 50 in RSI, currently at 65.90, would add weight to the proposed Wave 4 scenario.
Energies
RBOB Gasoline Futures
Gasoline Futures to test Support of 2025 trading range.
The weekly chart of Gasoline Futures again continues to show a range-bound market with no break of defined ranges. It will still take a weekly close above 2.32 as a breakout sign of the recent range to target upper resistance at 2.62 and 2.79 respectively. Until then, the low of 1.8545 is support for the trading range.
Prices could next challenge Support below 2.0000
With prices at 2.0132, prices fell 6 cents this week. An RSI reading below 50, now at 44.57, puts Gasoline Futures in bearish territory, for the first time in months. The Elliott Wave count overlayed in grey suggests Wave A of a secondary A,B,C lower is beginning to emerge following an intermittent Wave X advance to Resistance.
Conclusion
As before, accept any weekly close above 2.3215 as an upside breakout of the recent range. Conversely, accept any weekly close below 1.8545 as a downside breakout of the recent range. Lacking a noticeable divergence in price sentiment at Support, the 1.8545 low of the trading range appears vulnerable.
Currencies
Japanese Yen Futures
Yen Futures await more clarity.
Japanese Yen Futures are consolidating directly upon the prevailing trendline. Structural support is nearby beneath the trendline, at 0.006705. With RSI above 50, at 51.58, Yen Futures offer no clear opportunity.
Structural Support at 0.006705
A move below 0.006705 is needed to feel that the trend had turned lower.
Conclusion
With Yen Futures rising faster than Bonds, if the rally in Indices is complete, a break of Resistance at the April 2025 high of 0.0071935 would occur. While Resistance at 0.0071935 remains in place, allow for tests of Structural Support at 0.006705.
Grains
Wheat Futures
Wheat Futures to again move toward Support.
Wheat Futures remain below Resistance at the April 2025 high of 569’2 after a successful defense of support of 500, closing the week nearly unchanged at 533’2.
Resistance at 569’2
The next step lower to 500 and below would be achieved by witnessing a break of 506’02. To keep the series of lower lows and lower highs in place, Resistance at 569’2 must remain intact.
Conclusion
Still favoring further downside price movement to follow to below 500, with 425 as the next Support while Resistance at 569’2 remains in place. Use breaks below 506’2 as confirmation. With the RSI below 50, at 48.41, sentiment is Bearish again rekindling the next attempt to break support.
Softs
Coffee Futures
Coffee Futures fall has more to go.
Coffee Futures continued lower his week, closing at 342.20. As before, until we see a Daily close above Resistance at 418.90, a second A,B,C decline to come continues to remain the forecast.
418.90 remains firm Resistance
The Wave X high of 418.90 remains unchallenged as Resistance for further declines. As it holds, a potential “double” zig zag is the view for more even more downside pressure. With RSI at 32.22, bearish momentum has stayed below the midpoint again this week. This strongly favors Wave A of the next A,B,C decline to below 323.90 in motion. Only a Daily close above 418.90 would change the outlook.
Conclusion
Continue to favor more downside from below 418.90 to reach beneath 323.90.
Livestock
Feeder Cattle Futures
Feeder Cattle stay above Support at 290.
Feeder Cattle Futures maintain a Bullish RSI reading above 50, at 56.02, so a new all-time high above 303.475 remains a possibility. Prices closed the week’s trading at 298.675. The short-term Bulllish perspective here remains complete as we await confirmation of a peak in Wave 5.
Short-term support at 290 remains intact
Trend channel Resistance for Wave 5 still resides near 310. If any new marginal new high beyond 310 is needed to complete Wave 5, the 320 area, specifically 318.75, is the potential upper projection for a Wave 5 top to form. This is calculated by measuring the distance traveled in the widest part of the triangle, from 263.15 to 290. 36.85 points. When we add 36.85 to the triangle endpoint at 281.90, we get 318.75 as the projection. Repeating, thrusts from 4th wave triangles are terminal events and could end at any time. We can list 290 as support, as any drop below that level would take prices back into the span of the previous 4th wave triangle, indicating Wave 5 had likely peaked.
Conclusion
Awaiting a top to form. Structural Support is nearby at the wave 4 triangle endpoint of 281.90. If price continues lower and we witness moves below 281.90, move to confidently Bearish expecting declines to break Trend Channel Support in Wave A of a larger A,B,C Corrective Wave after 5-waves up complete in an Impulsive Wave as per the Elliott Wave Theory model. A break below 50 in RSI, currently at 56.02 or drop in prices below 290, currently at 298.675, would be a good indication that Wave 5 was finished and Wave A lower to beneath 281.90 had begun.
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Thank you!
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be
relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and
options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any
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